A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
